naunton_wThere are several areas of issue for the Real Estate sector. One is in the run-up to a referendum, which may create a period of instability and stagnation in the property market, whilst people think about what may happen if there were to be a Brexit or what would happen if we stay in. Now that in itself can manifest opportunities for investors because they see the market stalling and that should mean that prices come off and therefore, it could present an opportunity. But I think the more likely concern is that if people believe a Brexit will really happen, that that may just create stagnation.

英国退欧会给房地产行业带来几个问题。一是在公投的预备阶段,房地产市场可能出现一段不稳定和停滞期,人们会考虑英国退出和留在欧盟分别会发生什么事情。这种情况本身可能给投资者带来一些机会,因为他们看到市场停滞,可能意味着价格下跌,这可能是一个机会。但是,我认为更可能发生的情况是,如果人们相信英国真的会退出欧洲,这只会带来市场停滞。

We’ve definitely seen transactions that are now not proceeding because of Brexit [threat]. Indeed, there was a transaction only last week, that had started and has now immediately been put to a stop, when it went to investment committee. The investment committee have said there is too much uncertainty around Brexit so they won’t now proceed with it.

我们已明确看到,由于英国退欧的【威胁】,一些交易现已不再继续进行。事实上,上周只有一桩交易,这桩交易尽管已启动,现在却在提交投资委员会后被立即中止。投资委员会称,围绕英国退欧存在太多不确定性,因此他们现在不会推进。

There are really several areas of concern around Brexit. One is what happens to tenant demand. You’ve got things like the manufacturing industry and the financial services industry. If you believe that jobs will be lost and that jobs will go into the EU, rather than into the UK, then that reduces tenant demand, which is the thing that underpins investor demand. So, in the medium term and the longer term, if jobs come out of the UK and go into what remains of Europe, then that is a bad thing for the UK real estate. So you’ve got that potential area of concern.

围绕英国退欧确实存在一些令人担忧的问题。其中之一是对租户需求的影响。例如,我们有制造业和金融服务业等行业。如果你认为这些行业的就业岗位将流失,而且是流向欧盟而不是英国,那么这就会降低英国的租户需求,而正是租户需求支撑着投资者的需求。因此,在中长期,如果就业岗位从英国流向欧盟其他国家,这对英国房地产是件坏事。所以,这可能是一个令人担心的领域。

Now if you look at the manufacturing industry, it may take a very long time for that to manifest itself. If an inward investor or a large multinational corporation is deciding where to locate a new manufacturing plant — would they do that within the EU market, where they have got access to a free market, or would they come to the UK. Now you could see the UK deciding to offer grants and subsidies in a way that would currently be precluded by being a member of the EU, or you could see the manufacturers looking to go to somewhere that is within the free trade zone.

从制造业角度看,这个问题可能要很长时间才会暴露出来。假设一个外来投资者或大型跨国公司正考虑在什么地方建立新工厂,它们是要把工厂建在欧盟市场内获得进入自由市场的权利,还是将工厂放在英国?英国可能会给它们提供补助和补贴,而留在欧盟是无法这样做的,或者制造业企业希望迁往自由贸易区的某地。

On the positive side, there is such a weight of international capital that wishes to be deployed in the real estate market, that it is unlikely we are going to see any major correction in capital values in the UK, particularly in prime areas, like London, because the weight of that capital is needing to find a return that is more than the half or one per cent that you can get by putting the money in a bank and more than you can get with the risks that the financial markets currently offer. So real estate, particularly in a very liquid and stable market like London, will continue to be a highly attractive asset class for people that have got large amounts of money that they wish to put away for long periods of time. So there is a potential benefit. Also, the thought is that if there is a Brexit, our currency will weaken, which will make asset prices even cheaper in the UK — so there are some real positives about Brexit, but not necessarily long-term positives.

好的一面是,由于大量国际资本想进入房地产市场,因此英国的资本不太可能出现大幅贬值,特别是在伦敦等热点地区,因为这类资本要求获得比银行存款的0.5%或1%利率要高的回报率,这种回报率还必须高于当前金融市场风险水平上的回报率。因此,在伦敦这种流动性非常高而且稳定的市场,对于拥有大量资金而且希望长期投资的人而言,房地产仍然是一种非常有吸引力的资产类别。所以,这有一种潜在的好处。此外,有人认为,英国一旦退欧,我们的货币会贬值,使得英国的资产更便宜——因此英国退欧确实存在一定积极意义,但长期来看并不一定是好事。

The other thing that I would say about Brexit is whether or not that leads to another Scottish independence referendum. The property market went through a period of stagnation in Scotland just before the last referendum. If this would allow the SNP to say that the fundamental basis for staying with the United Kingdom has changed and therefore, that they would like to call another referendum so that they can stay within the EU or apply for new membership, then I think that creates a further level of uncertainty.

对于英国退欧,我想说的另一件事是,这会不会导致苏格兰再来一次独立公投。上次公投之前,苏格兰房地产市场就出现了一段时间的停滞。英国退欧,苏格兰民族党便会说留在英国的根本依据已发生变化,他们想再举行一次公投,决定是留在欧盟还是申请新的成员国资格,我觉得这会造成进一步的不确定性。

So, all in all, I would say that Brexit, and the mere fact that we are going to a referendum, is the bad bit. I think markets adjust quite quickly and will find their own level once the period of uncertainty has passed.

总的说来,我觉得英国退欧,甚至单单是走向公投这一事实,都是一件坏事。我认为市场调整相当快,而且一旦不确定期过去,就会自行达到均衡。