Providing South Korea as an example, Dr. Cave commented on the fast development and implementation of broadband in that country, and added to that example the Singapore government's policy “for creating a very high speed broadband network throughout the island.” According to Dr. Cave, “This approach yields much quicker results, and can also be used to support local equipment development and manufacture.”
As the conversation progressed from these Asian countries towards China, Dr. Cave pointed out that while he is not a China expert, in his opinion,
“…it is obvious that mobile voice, in China, as in India and elsewhere, is transforming the consumer market place. Mobile also provides a fertile opportunity for the development of Chinese technologies and standards. I have recently prepared a report for the GSM Association, a coalition of mobile operators, which argues that mobile communications thrive in a relatively unregulated atmosphere -- one which utilises competing operators' desires to win customers with keen prices and new services."
Dr. Cave commented that this transforming marketplace naturally progresses towards mobile broadband and that the next decade will see increasing broadband speeds, In fact, securing access to broadband has become intrinsically tied to a country's economic growth. Dr. Cave further commented on mobile broadband that
“A country which loses out in this race [to develop mobile broadband networks] risks suffering major economic loss. In areas where there is no fixed network, wireless is the key, and many technologies are or will be available -- 3G, varieties of 4G, Wi-max, etc. ”
Dr. Cave provided as an example the Australian company, Telstra, which has built a wireless network within a short time period which delivers high speed broadband to 99% of the population. He commented that Telstra's network
“…is encouraging its competitors to follow suit. If this sort of network is replicated in other countries, and if enough spectrum is made available to support the traffic, the capacity of less affluent countries to 'catch-up' could have remarkable effects. There will still be a need to develop fibre-based networks for business, and in areas where they are already available, but these might take second place to wireless networks in meeting household demand. The good thing about wireless technologies is that they are inherently competitive, so the need for regulation is more limited than it is for monopoly fixed networks; this state of ‘permanent competition’ imposes on operators a permanent need to invest to retain customers and capture new ones. ”
However, while certain areas develop best with minimal regulatory interference, Dr. Cave added that others require regulatory interaction to ensure fair competition in an international market. He emphasizes that
“business customers - especially large corporations – [need to] get the range and quality of services which assist them in competing successfully in international markets. This involves creating regulatory incentives to extend fibre deployment in business districts.”
Dr. Cave added that he sees enormous scope for China in the communications equipment market. He commented, “[China] has a large home market, and already a major international one, where its success is increasingly based on technological rather than price-based competition.”
When asked about the future of copyright protection for data exchanged over the
Internet, through phone devices, or through other web-related devices, Dr. Cave pointed to the market power shift from networks to content that has occurred in the last two decades. He states
“From this point of view, the proponents of net neutrality, such as Google, are fighting off an attempt by network operators such as AT&T and Verizon to re-assert themselves. However, content is only as valuable as its copyright protection is effective, and peer-to-peer exchanges, social networking sites and other developments endanger its value. But this is a new manifestation of the permanent battle between owners and would-be copiers. The copyright owners use technology such as digital rights management and new business models such as low-cost music downloads to make their paid offerings more palatable to consumers.”
As our discussion with Dr. Cave came to a close, he predicted that while copyright owners won't lose this battle over copyright, the way they are remunerated may change significantly.
Click here for the PDF version.
专家看通信技术的发展
——专访通信规制经济学家Martin Cave 博士
采写：Serwat Perwaiz*
当谈到感兴趣的主要领域时，Cave博士表示，他特别关注“无线电频谱技术的革新和使用自由化”。因为，“在过去的十年里，无线电频谱为语音技术和宽带无线技术提供了技术支持，并推动了后两项技术的飞速发展”。Cave博士还介绍了欧洲和美国的标准模式与亚洲国家的模式的区别。他表示，欧美的标准模式是“依靠最激烈的竞争实现最低程度的监管，从而减小该技术对政府政策和财政津贴的依赖”。而亚洲国家的模式主要依赖“政府政策驱动”。
Cave博士指出，当今宽带发展迅速、使用日益普遍，韩国就是一个例子。新加坡政府也推出了“在全国建立高速宽带网络”的政策。Cave博士称，“这种做法的效果立竿见影，并能促进本土的通信设施的开发和制造”。
谈到中国时，Cave博士表示，他并非中国问题的专家，但是认为：“很明显，在中国，如同印度和世界上其他国家一样，移动通信正在转变消费者市场。同时也为中国的技术和行业标准的发展提供了良好的契机。”在最近为移动营运商联盟全球移动通信协会（GSM Association）准备的报告中，他指出，移动通信在一个相对缺乏规范的环境中迅猛发展，这种环境会导致竞争者通过压低价位和推出新业务来赢得顾客。”
Cave博士说，转型中的市场会很自然地朝移动宽带的方向发展，未来十年中，宽带的速度将不断加快。事实上，保证宽带的使用已与一个国家的经济增长紧密联系在一起。Cave博士对移动宽带的功能做出了如下评价：如果一个国家（移动宽带网络的发展）落后于其他国家，将面临遭受重大经济损失的危险。在没有有线网络的区域内，无线技术尤为重要，能够或将能发挥作用的其他技术，还有第3代移动通信技术（3G），各种第4代移动通信技术（4G），全球通用微波通信技术（Wi-max）等等。
Cave博士以澳大利亚电信公司（Telstra）为例进行说明。该公司在很短时间内建成了无线网络，并向全国99%的居民提供高速宽带。他认为，Telstra的网络“激励了其他竞争者追随其脚步。如果这种网络应用于其他国家，并且有足够的频谱来支持流量，较为贫穷的国家赶上来的能力可能会得到显著提高。为商业活动发展光纤网络的需求仍然存在。但在已有光纤网络的地区，此类网络在满足家庭使用方面，可能成为无线网络以外的第二选择。无线技术本身具有竞争性，因此与占据垄断地位的有线网络相比，政策法规无需对无线网络作出过多限制。这种“永久性的竞争”使得运营商永远都需要不断投入资本，以维系现有客户群并开发新客户。”
Cave博士进一步指出，虽然对市场的某些方面来说，最低程度的监管对其发展最为有利，而其他方面却需要监管来保证国际市场上的公平竞争。他强调，公司型客户，尤其是大公司，（需要）得到全面和高质量的服务，以帮助其在国际市场的竞争中立于不败之地。这包括通过立法鼓励在商业区发展光纤网络。
Cave博士认为，中国的通信设备市场有巨大的发展空间。他表示：“中国具有一个巨大的国内市场，也是国际市场的一个主要成员，而这一成功更多地是依靠技术进步而非价格竞争。”
当问到对于互联网、电话设备或其它网络设备进行数据传输的的著做权保护的前景，Cave博士指出，在过去的二十年里，市场能量正从网络转向其内容。他表示：“从这一点来看，网络中立性的提倡者，如谷歌（Google），正在与美国电话电报公司（AT&T ）以及Verizon等网络营运商进行较量以维护自身的利益。但是，内容只有在著作权的有效保护下才有价值，而点对点（peer-to-peer）数据交换、交友网站和其它技术的发展都可能危及其价值。而这也是内容所有者和潜在的复制者将进行持久战的表现之一。著作权人使用技术（如数字版权管理）及新的商业模式（如低成本音乐下载）等，使其网上付款式销售更为消费者所接受。
在采访的最后，Cave博士对网络著作权的保护做出了预测。他认为，著作权人将不会输掉这场著作权的斗争，但他们获得报酬的方式可能会发生重大的改变。
